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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 35 games
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 22 games
68%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 7 games
100%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
576 picks · 614 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
465 picks · 240 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 803 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 383 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 715 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 731 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
343 picks · 834 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 740 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
Team Aster 71%Team Bright 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
47% · 220 games47% · 242 games
Ember Spiritphoenix
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
49% · 70 games51% · 224 games
DoomIrving
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
58% · 50 games48% · 202 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Lion
LionKaka
49% · 56 games
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
55% · 272 games
Game 2prediction correct40:14
Team Aster 74%Team Bright 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
53% · 144 games50% · 331 game
Pangolierphoenix
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
51% · 193 games51% · 130 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
51% · 49 games52% · 391 game
UndyingUndyne_
Undying
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
43% · 111 games
Snapfire
SnapfireKaka
47% · 355 games
Game 3prediction missed19:25
Team Aster 74%Team Bright 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 39:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMonet
46% · 27 games54% · 198 games
PangolierIrving
Pangolier
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
47% · 24 games49% · 184 games
Ember Spiritphoenix
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
45% · 48 games54% · 53 games
LichUndyne_
Lich
Lion
LionKaka
48% · 59 games
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
53% · 277 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 88%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3