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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
9Pandaswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 34 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 27 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 25 games
52%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 44 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
61%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 35 games
66%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 687 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
527 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
445 picks · 962 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
429 picks · 938 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 861 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 866 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 999 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:24
Evil Geniuses 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPakazs
38% · 164 games49% · 114 games
JuggernautRAMZES666
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
50% · 220 games48% · 180 games
Broodmotherkiyotaka
Broodmother
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
53% · 214 games52% · 334 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMatthew
50% · 177 games59% · 344 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
42% · 237 games64% · 40 games
Witch DoctorSolo
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 57%
Series result9Pandas 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1