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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 35 games
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 19 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 18 games
39%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Taiga · 16 games
50%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
514 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 971 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 927 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
390 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
OG 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
57% · 165 games50% · 228 games
TimbersawCollapse
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 148 games47% · 99 games
LycanYatoro
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
56% · 136 games42% · 335 games
SnapfireLarl
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
46% · 281 game47% · 413 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
53% · 420 games54% · 75 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed41:14
OG 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuragi
54% · 108 games53% · 217 games
BroodmotherYatoro
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
54% · 248 games46% · 205 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
53% · 377 games50% · 125 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
54% · 138 games41% · 311 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTaiga
49% · 309 games47% · 322 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2