?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 335 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 976 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 931 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:29
Team Spirit 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:06:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
41% · 87 games56% · 50 games
Lunashiro
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
52% · 312 games51% · 130 games
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
49% · 258 games53% · 207 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Lion
LionMira
45% · 56 games46% · 302 games
BatriderpLAnet
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
52% · 253 games53% · 277 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed27:15
Team Spirit 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
49% · 117 games48% · 261 game
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
44% · 180 games55% · 229 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
42% · 101 game48% · 50 games
Axeniu
Axe
Mirana
MiranaMira
56% · 208 games50% · 172 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
46% · 194 games60% · 88 games
Ioy`
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2