?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 20 games
60%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 14 games
21%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 603 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 502 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1157 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
467 picks · 867 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
421 picks · 1071 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
403 picks · 861 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
396 picks · 569 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
395 picks · 216 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Evil Geniuses 76%Mad Kings 24%
The model gave 76% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
59% · 60 games47% · 80 games
BloodseekerDaaD-
Bloodseeker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
56% · 140 games42% · 106 games
Void SpiritPiPi
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomWisper
50% · 234 games48% · 57 games
Centaur WarrunnerArzenT
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
51% · 55 games48% · 287 games
RubickGenek
Rubick
Oracle
OraclePanda
54% · 41 game
Game 2prediction correct39:16
Evil Geniuses 73%Mad Kings 27%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusPakazs
53% · 44 games48% · 33 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerChris Luck
28% · 17 games48% · 88 games
Spirit BreakerPiPi
Spirit Breaker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWisper
56% · 10 games40% · 12 games
Night StalkerArzenT
Night Stalker
Techies
TechiesPanda
62% · 59 games47% · 29 games
ClinkzGenek
Clinkz
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMatthew
52% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 89%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2