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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 11 games
73%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
843 picks · 595 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
608 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 425 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
502 picks · 806 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
451 picks · 929 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
449 picks · 308 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
Polaris Esports 58%Blacklist International 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 50:05.
Game 2prediction missed10:33
Polaris Esports 58%Blacklist International 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 33:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 58%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2