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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
solji · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 6 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 6 games
67%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokersignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
761 picks · 496 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 392 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 624 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 274 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 673 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 770 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 82%
Hero pool strength56% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total56% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:49
Felt 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 56:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
41% · 142 games43% · 55 games
Drow RangerSunlight
Drow Ranger
Broodmother
BroodmotherFayde
59% · 128 games48% · 207 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteralbinozebra
47% · 44 games53% · 249 games
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
Mirana
Miranasolji
58% · 299 games49% · 102 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Game 2prediction missed33:19
Felt 45%Team DogChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Felt in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBerna
47% · 123 games50% · 274 games
Monkey KingSunlight
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
56% · 269 games46% · 367 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Mirana
Miranaalbinozebra
50% · 365 games46% · 527 games
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
Tiny
Tinysolji
52% · 683 games54% · 272 games
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct21:51
Felt 45%Team DogChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperBerna
48% · 55 games61% · 73 games
RazorSunlight
Razor
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
56% · 36 games59% · 9 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Disruptor
Disruptoralbinozebra
51% · 92 games42% · 176 games
HoodwinkFrancisLee
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubicksolji
47% · 259 games47% · 184 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 56%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3