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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GamerLegionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 12 games
50%

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 23 games
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
35%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 19 games
42%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
351 picks · 148 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 464 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 456 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
280 picks · 258 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:11
Team Nemesis 51%GamerLegion 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
55% · 142 games44% · 600 games
TinyTimado
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
61% · 381 game46% · 301 game
TimbersawRCY
Timbersaw
Largo
LargoSabeRLight-
58% · 224 games37% · 35 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
53% · 515 games41% · 101 game
Witch DoctorSpeeed
Witch Doctor
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNARMAN
60% · 175 games42% · 400 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct19:38
Team Nemesis 45%GamerLegion 55%
The model gave 55% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerJaCkky
49% · 185 games51% · 81 game
SvenTimado
Sven
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
47% · 216 games53% · 167 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
47% · 124 games51% · 216 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJhocam
45% · 74 games49% · 180 games
MiranaSpeeed
Mirana
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
49% · 96 games60% · 51 game
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct
Team Nemesis 43%GamerLegion 57%
The model gave 57% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 57%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3