The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
700 picks · 553 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 649 bans
Marci
498 picks · 770 bans
Puck
475 picks · 987 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 399 bans
Snapfire
302 picks · 155 bans
Razor
296 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
RSG 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 40:50.
Game 2prediction correct46:6
RSG 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 41:49.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2