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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 17 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
ninjaboogie · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 7 games
86%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Moon · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 448 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
420 picks · 899 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 578 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 373 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
319 picks · 197 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 570 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:25
BOOM Esports 69%Team SMG 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerJaCkky
45% · 37 games43% · 99 games
JuggernautMidOne
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
52% · 37 games47% · 49 games
ZeusMoon
Zeus
Mars
MarsFbz
56% · 110 games56% · 20 games
TechiesAhFu
Techies
Mirana
MiranaTims
53% · 48 games48% · 93 games
ViperPoloson
Viper
Warlock
WarlockSkem
58% · 29 games
Game 2prediction correct27:47
BOOM Esports 79%Team SMG 21%
The model gave 79% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2