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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Novaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 5 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 5 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 3 games
67%

Nova

Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bb3px · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
foryou · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 1 game
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
473 picks · 281 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 548 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 500 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
352 picks · 460 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
313 picks · 523 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
285 picks · 519 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
274 picks · 366 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 191 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:38
YNT 49%Nova 51%
The model gave 51% on Nova — the game was taken by Nova in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageDarkLord^
57% · 69 games49% · 173 games
Medusaparadise'
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
46% · 112 games55% · 201 game
Ember Spiritforyou
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingDominic
50% · 195 games47% · 326 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Grimstroke
Grimstrokejesv
46% · 267 games47% · 36 games
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiondSa
55% · 134 games48% · 41 game
Jakiroso bad
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct18:13
YNT 51%Nova 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDarkLord^
51% · 262 games47% · 163 games
Leshracforyou
Leshrac
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
57% · 269 games50% · 123 games
Lifestealerparadise'
Lifestealer
Io
IoDominic
49% · 223 games47% · 440 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightjesv
58% · 49 games41% · 332 games
Snapfireso bad
Snapfire
Bane
BanedSa
59% · 292 games38% · 37 games
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed9:5
YNT 50%Nova 50%
The model gave 50% on Nova — the game was taken by YNT in 21:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDarkLord^
50% · 200 games49% · 164 games
Death Prophetforyou
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
55% · 156 games48% · 70 games
Bloodseekerparadise'
Bloodseeker
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 195 games49% · 311 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Techies
Techiesjesv
48% · 13 games52% · 52 games
Jakiroso bad
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingdSa
46% · 86 games48% · 53 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 52%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3