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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trident Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%

Trident Clan

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 5 games
20%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 5 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Pikachu · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
SoulEater · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
429 picks · 191 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 563 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 860 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 322 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 230 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 391 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
275 picks · 375 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 19%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Nemiga Gaming 67%Trident Clan 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
58% · 60 games46% · 22 games
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Drow Ranger
Kunkka
KunkkaTheChosenOne
51% · 26 games50% · 88 games
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Mars
MarsAinkrad
50% · 132 games43% · 78 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
50% · 48 games50% · 137 games
PhoenixSoulEater
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLodine
50% · 94 games49% · 35 games
HoodwinksQreen
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct42:13
Nemiga Gaming 65%Trident Clan 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
51% · 104 games41% · 49 games
SpectreMunkushi~
Spectre
Doom
DoomTheChosenOne
56% · 62 games50% · 289 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
49% · 104 games50% · 60 games
Sand KingCorrupted
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
44% · 92 games47% · 44 games
WarlocksQreen
Warlock
Lion
LionLodine
53% · 254 games54% · 174 games
Nyx AssassinSoulEater
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 78%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2