ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionCECyberLife eSportswin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DDIVIZONloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CyberLife eSports
Marsoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
DIVIZON
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 978 bans
Lion
369 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 591 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 649 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 223 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% DIVIZON
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% DIVIZON
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDIVIZON · 61%
Series resultCyberLife eSports 1:0
Series predictionmissed