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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
hAze clanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%

hAze clan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Malik · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 880 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 390 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 641 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 596 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 835 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 587 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% hAze clan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Nemiga Gaming 43%hAze clan 57%
The model gave 57% on hAze clan — the game was taken by hAze clan in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
49% · 230 games48% · 252 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Beastmaster
Beastmasteryoung G
47% · 227 games56% · 150 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterCovisnine
54% · 150 games51% · 415 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Warlock
WarlockVaniLLl
47% · 285 gameslittle data
Largonot me
Largo
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanvelheor
52% · 219 games47% · 294 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:43
Nemiga Gaming 42%hAze clan 58%
The model gave 58% on hAze clan — the game was taken by hAze clan in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaselfhate
55% · 35 games55% · 36 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
45% · 132 games53% · 150 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyCovisnine
44% · 370 games59% · 314 games
Ember SpirithAze
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixVaniLLl
43% · 104 games48% · 195 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magevelheor
45% · 95 games58% · 41 game
Treant Protectornot me
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritehAze clan · 62%
Series resulthAze clan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2