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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
89%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
y` · 4 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 4 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
67%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 6 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ori · 4 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Dy · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 791 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
350 picks · 472 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 526 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 227 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
266 picks · 423 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
248 picks · 147 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 489 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
229 picks · 341 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:35
LGD Gaming 48%Vici Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:02:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
54% · 50 games46% · 28 games
Phantom Lancerpoyoyo
Phantom Lancer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
57% · 59 games47% · 78 games
PangolierELeVeN
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 107 games47% · 28 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptery`
52% · 9 games46% · 75 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskXinQ
51% · 80 games50% · 96 games
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct10:28
LGD Gaming 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
43% · 27 games47% · 33 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Weaver
WeaverFaith_bian
61% · 29 games49% · 31 game
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
54% · 60 games50% · 46 games
PangolierELeVeN
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
49% · 83 games43% · 49 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptery`
61% · 19 games49% · 59 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed34:14
LGD Gaming 45%Vici Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
45% · 58 games54% · 85 games
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
Wraith King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
53% · 105 games42% · 35 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
56% · 57 games49% · 65 games
BatriderELeVeN
Batrider
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
42% · 75 games57% · 80 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskXinQ
51% · 59 games46% · 89 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3