Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TVTeam Veteranloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassin
Abat · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Bloodseeker
Abat · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 1 game
Team Veteran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
31 picks · 63 bans
Puck
29 picks · 72 bans
Earth Spirit
28 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 41 bans
Mirana
23 picks · 26 bans
Monkey King
22 picks · 41 bans
Undying
21 picks · 40 bans
Batrider
19 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Veteran
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Veteran
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
Cignal Ultra 50%Team Veteran 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 26:59.
Game 2prediction correct17:26
Cignal Ultra 50%Team Veteran 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by Team Veteran in 29:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Veteran · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2