Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 2 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 2 games
Abaddon
ninjaboogie · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Army Geniuses
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Rikioften banned
db- · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 1 game
Tusk
Lym- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
31 picks · 56 bans
Puck
28 picks · 67 bans
Earth Spirit
26 picks · 18 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 40 bans
Monkey King
21 picks · 38 bans
Undying
21 picks · 39 bans
Batrider
19 picks · 78 bans
Mirana
19 picks · 26 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:23
Team SMG 39%Army Geniuses 61%
The model gave 61% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorvtFαded
Lycandb-
Chaos KnightMushi
Night StalkerMamangDaya
MiranaAhFu
PangolierwoMy
Brewmasterninjaboogie
Earth SpiritLym-
Game 2prediction missed39:32
Team SMG 41%Army Geniuses 59%
The model gave 59% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Team SMG in 54:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidvtFαded
Wraith Kingdb-
Centaur WarrunnerMushi
Legion CommanderwoMy
PhoenixAhFu
Earth SpiritMamangDaya
Nyx Assassinninjaboogie
Shadow DemonLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2