Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 5 games
Brewmaster
Red · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Red · 2 games
Bloodseeker
Red · 2 games
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 2 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
143 picks · 264 bans
Puck
141 picks · 330 bans
Earth Spirit
126 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 181 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 120 bans
Keeper of the Light
96 picks · 169 bans
Nyx Assassin
92 picks · 333 bans
Rubick
91 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:51
496 Gaming 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 43:03.
Game 2prediction correct35:25
496 Gaming 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 49:38.
Game 3prediction missed42:45
496 Gaming 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 52:49.
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 67%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3