PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction4A4 amigoswin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 amigos
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 1 game
Mirana
albinozebra · 1 game
Puckoften banned
RCY · 1 game
Sven
Double King · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 1 game
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Clinkz
bgod · 2 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 717 bans
Mars
416 picks · 668 bans
Techies
413 picks · 329 bans
Lion
397 picks · 360 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 872 bans
Crystal Maiden
373 picks · 166 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 54%
Hero pool strength63% 4 amigos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
4 amigos 50%TiltedBoys 50%
The model gave 50% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightDouble King
Hoodwinkbgod
PangolierRCY
Omniknightmonkeys-forever
Death Prophetalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed32:31
4 amigos 46%TiltedBoys 54%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 58:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDouble King
Bounty Hunterbgod
PuckRCY
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
Miranaalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 59%
Series result4 amigos 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2