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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
bumble bEE'sloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4 Zoomers

No games played over 6 months.

bumble bEE's

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Ryoya · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
44%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 593 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 881 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 307 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 246 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 439 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 407 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total79% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
4 Zoomers 79%bumble bEE's 21%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 45:12.
Game 2prediction correct26:7
4 Zoomers 79%bumble bEE's 21%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 41:16.
Game 3prediction correct39:8
4 Zoomers 79%bumble bEE's 21%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 34:20.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 79%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3