Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Aravaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Arava
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 2 games
Phoenix
Zayac · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Lion
Zayac · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
440 picks · 211 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 520 bans
Techies
333 picks · 352 bans
Batrider
307 picks · 529 bans
Morphling
298 picks · 580 bans
Undying
293 picks · 482 bans
Timbersaw
280 picks · 660 bans
Storm Spirit
257 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Arava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
4 Zoomers 71%Team Arava 29%
The model gave 71% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 32:15.
Game 2prediction correct29:23
4 Zoomers 71%Team Arava 29%
The model gave 71% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 46:34.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 71%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2