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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chimera Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 10 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 6 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 6 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
60%

Chimera Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 4 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
OneJey · 3 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 3 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Daxak · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 540 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 521 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 567 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 277 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 401 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 173 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 727 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 142 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength64% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
4Pirates 26%Chimera Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerOtaker
39% · 39 games52% · 149 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
56% · 110 games51% · 386 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
45% · 253 games52% · 255 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderPERDAN4IK
46% · 323 games51% · 171 game
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
52% · 337 games52% · 101 game
Nyx AssassinOneJey
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed37:22
4Pirates 26%Chimera Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOtaker
51% · 342 games51% · 366 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
56% · 139 games50% · 138 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNattyNarwhal
46% · 147 games45% · 111 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
50% · 355 games51% · 140 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
51% · 47 games50% · 275 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed32:22
4Pirates 28%Chimera Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
49% · 122 games42% · 185 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOtaker
50% · 137 games41% · 159 games
LinaLorenof
Lina
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
54% · 246 games57% · 160 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
61% · 264 games45% · 303 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
52% · 356 games49% · 318 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 87%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3