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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cyber Goosewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%

Cyber Goose

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
prblms · 7 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 5 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
prblms · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 603 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
471 picks · 237 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 775 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
343 picks · 791 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
320 picks · 353 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 78%
Hero pool strength53% Cyber Goose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Cyber Goose
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:42
4Pirates 47%Cyber Goose 53%
The model gave 53% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomOtaker
53% · 236 games52% · 166 games
LinaTA2000
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
53% · 147 games52% · 76 games
OmniknightNoticed
Omniknight
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
47% · 384 games52% · 579 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetariel
55% · 155 games46% · 320 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
45% · 284 games46% · 65 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 2prediction correct12:33
4Pirates 48%Cyber Goose 52%
The model gave 52% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOtaker
52% · 409 games47% · 57 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
43% · 88 games58% · 187 games
Dark SeerNoticed
Dark Seer
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
39% · 147 games52% · 406 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickariel
49% · 248 games46% · 328 games
JakiroSolo
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
58% · 233 games53% · 147 games
Ringmasterprblms
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteCyber Goose · 56%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2