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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
20%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
75%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 24 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 17 games
41%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 659 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
442 picks · 514 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 558 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
368 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
341 picks · 378 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
322 picks · 245 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
318 picks · 887 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:27
4Pirates 29%Dragon Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperOtaker
52% · 52 games53% · 43 games
Drow Rangerlil pleb
Drow Ranger
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
53% · 48 games43% · 112 games
LinaPanda
Lina
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
54% · 197 games53% · 176 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Rubick
Rubickariel
50% · 219 games48% · 126 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
48% · 59 games47% · 118 games
Elder TitanMary_y
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct16:25
4Pirates 30%Dragon Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOtaker
51% · 105 games47% · 101 game
Sniperlil pleb
Sniper
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
53% · 74 games63% · 26 games
HuskarPanda
Huskar
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
63% · 15 games29% · 68 games
VisageInfernal
Visage
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
44% · 8 games50% · 87 games
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
54% · 161 game49% · 81 game
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 84%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2