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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 12 games
50%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 718 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 796 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 542 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
397 picks · 921 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 761 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction missed
4Pirates 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 3prediction missed
4Pirates 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 52%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3