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CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 37 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 34 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 27 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
50%

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 27 games
59%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
789 picks · 362 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
580 picks · 579 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 301 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 582 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
495 picks · 339 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 270 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
477 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1115 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total79% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
4Pirates 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcizvёzd
56% · 214 games44% · 94 games
Weaverv1olent-
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
50% · 343 games41% · 232 games
Queen of Painerase
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
55% · 193 games50% · 231 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonariel
51% · 239 games51% · 324 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
49% · 138 games53% · 246 games
Pugnaslimeyao
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct11:34
4Pirates 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
Rikizvёzd
65% · 31 game62% · 86 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 233 games52% · 101 game
Shadow Fienderase
Shadow Fiend
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
45% · 243 games47% · 315 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterariel
48% · 237 games48% · 299 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
46% · 297 games52% · 240 games
Pugnaslimeyao
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 79%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2