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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
РАБОТЯГИloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%

РАБОТЯГИ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zvёzd · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
lupsione · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
lupsione · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 684 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 796 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 546 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 370 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1005 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 913 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% РАБОТЯГИ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
4Pirates 58%РАБОТЯГИ 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 50:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyOtaker
51% · 280 games53% · 195 games
Alchemistssnovv1
Alchemist
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
49% · 72 games45% · 248 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seerмистер мораль
51% · 89 games45% · 72 games
Night Stalkerspirit
Night Stalker
Tusk
Tuskariel
48% · 235 games46% · 131 game
MarciSomnia
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
55% · 159 games57% · 189 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct19:3
4Pirates 57%РАБОТЯГИ 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 15:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
50% · 147 games49% · 316 games
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracNattyNarwhal
48% · 125 games58% · 102 games
Dark Seerspirit
Dark Seer
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
49% · 209 games50% · 206 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerariel
44% · 75 games57% · 68 games
Ioasdekor_r
Io
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
49% · 237 games49% · 101 game
MarciSomnia
Marci
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 64%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2