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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
46%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
bottega · 9 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 541 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
455 picks · 498 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
430 picks · 225 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 277 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 366 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 808 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 528 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
353 picks · 520 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:41
4Pirates 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
56% · 297 games55% · 161 game
Templar Assassinbottega
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
50% · 423 games51% · 251 game
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainOtaker
45% · 143 games45% · 158 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
Disruptorariel
46% · 70 games43% · 173 games
WarlockXakoda
Warlock
Bane
BanePERDAN4IK
52% · 51 game56% · 241 game
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct43:17
4Pirates 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
49% · 160 games54% · 268 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Rubick
RubickNattyNarwhal
46% · 104 games45% · 118 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
Kunkkaмистер мораль
48% · 121 game54% · 214 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Pugna
Pugnaariel
52% · 137 games55% · 215 games
Shadow Shamanmrls
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
45% · 302 games38% · 9 games
Witch DoctorXakoda
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct30:26
4Pirates 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 47:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
48% · 179 games53% · 119 games
Ursabottega
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
49% · 175 games40% · 144 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
51% · 136 games57% · 207 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
51% · 163 games50% · 32 games
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
49% · 253 games51% · 404 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 55%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3