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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 28 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
56%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 552 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 511 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
319 picks · 711 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 564 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
4Pirates 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
49% · 196 games60% · 116 games
Templar Assassinbottega
Templar Assassin
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
45% · 97 games52% · 224 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
57% · 337 games54% · 209 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingPERDAN4IK
46% · 108 games52% · 72 games
Banemrls
Bane
Snapfire
Snapfireariel
36% · 141 game47% · 258 games
TuskXakoda
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:29
4Pirates 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciOtaker
45% · 164 games53% · 183 games
Nature's Prophetbottega
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
50% · 118 games61% · 181 game
Monkey KingMirele
Monkey King
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
45% · 89 games49% · 94 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
50% · 179 games49% · 154 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
52% · 276 games47% · 214 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2