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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Corrupted · 14 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 12 games
67%

Ban9PivoSamogon

Doom
Doomsignature
ififall · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
ififall · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
not me · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
VaniLLl · 5 games
80%
Pugna
Pugna
VaniLLl · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
not me · 4 games
75%
Pudge
Pudge
not me · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
zvёzd · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
477 picks · 467 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
376 picks · 209 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 376 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 835 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 888 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 442 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
293 picks · 257 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 569 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total83% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:40
HULIGANI 70%Ban9PivoSamogon 30%
The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:04:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
52% · 239 games44% · 144 games
Svenzvёzd
Sven
Kunkka
Kunkkaerase
44% · 183 games52% · 387 games
Beastmasterififall
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
56% · 145 games49% · 191 game
Invokerряф^^
Invoker
Warlock
Warlockaik
53% · 176 games47% · 344 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
50% · 428 games54% · 105 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct41:25
HULIGANI 72%Ban9PivoSamogon 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
Earthshakererase
59% · 121 game46% · 94 games
Ursazvёzd
Ursa
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidv1olent-
67% · 19 games47% · 113 games
Abaddonififall
Abaddon
Rubick
RubickBb3px
49% · 83 games44% · 118 games
Sand Kingряф^^
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantressaik
53% · 127 games47% · 117 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
58% · 198 games38% · 106 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 83%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2