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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 9 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 9 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Antares · 9 games
22%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Solo · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Antares · 8 games
38%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 18 games
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Cloud · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
81%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 354 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 563 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 518 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 258 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 630 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 291 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
9Pandas 49%1w Team 51%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkDarkLord^
51% · 140 games50% · 154 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
45% · 231 game50% · 112 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
46% · 133 games54% · 199 games
Dragon KnightCloud
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionAntares
46% · 144 games57% · 121 game
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingSolo
47% · 188 games55% · 250 games
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed42:16
9Pandas 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
40% · 75 games51% · 98 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Kunkka
Kunkkakiyotaka
49% · 138 games50% · 77 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
49% · 37 games49% · 110 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Undying
UndyingSolo
47% · 154 games55% · 68 games
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Gyrocopter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
49% · 100 games61% · 151 game
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct33:24
9Pandas 50%1w Team 50%
The model gave 50% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:00:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDarkLord^
51% · 100 games46% · 169 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
46% · 265 games50% · 167 games
KunkkaCloud
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderAntares
56% · 199 games53% · 33 games
DazzleChira JUNIOR
Dazzle
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
52% · 138 games49% · 271 game
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaSolo
50% · 159 games50% · 221 game
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 51%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3