European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
laise · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 6 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 5 games
Lion
ariel · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
481 picks · 658 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 505 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 552 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 188 bans
Batrider
337 picks · 364 bans
Luna
324 picks · 430 bans
Invoker
315 picks · 876 bans
Muerta
314 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
9Pandas 64%4Pirates 36%
The model gave 64% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDarkLord^
DawnbreakerOtaker
Tinyerase
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Brewmasterlaise
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Muertajesv
Lichariel
Ogre MagiSolo
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct52:16
9Pandas 65%4Pirates 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistDarkLord^
Dragon KnightOtaker
Storm Spiriterase
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Tidehunterlaise
TinyNattyNarwhal
Leshracjesv
Gyrocopterariel
Shadow DemonSolo
LichPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 71%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2