Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
Rubick
Antares · 39 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 35 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 32 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 31 game
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
490 picks · 323 bans
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 860 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:20
9Pandas 68%beastcoast 32%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:19.
Game 2prediction correct32:16
9Pandas 68%beastcoast 32%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 24:31.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 68%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2