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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Chimera Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Alchemist
Alchemist
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Antares · 13 games
54%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 10 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Solo · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 10 games
50%
Sven
Sven
RAMZES666 · 9 games
56%

Chimera Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
re1bl · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Chuvash · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Nande · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
re1bl · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
OneJey · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 425 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 404 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
220 picks · 189 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 95 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:39
9Pandas 66%Chimera Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
46% · 137 games54% · 150 games
Windrangerre1bl
Windranger
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
54% · 98 games51% · 118 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernkiyotaka
38% · 36 games52% · 118 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesAntares
52% · 180 games50% · 114 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSolo
51% · 176 games47% · 127 games
Vengeful SpiritChuvash
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 82%
Series resultChimera Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1