Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
A-Teamwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
A-Team
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Rises · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
250 picks · 521 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 281 bans
Mars
207 picks · 380 bans
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
170 picks · 294 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 523 bans
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
Wraith King
157 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% A-Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
A-Team 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on A-Team — the game was taken by A-Team in 54:35.
Game 2prediction correct33:12
A-Team 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on A-Team — the game was taken by A-Team in 39:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteA-Team · 55%
Series resultA-Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2