?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
AcatSukiloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AcatSuki

Mirana
Mirana
Kiri · 3 games
67%
Sven
Sven
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Kiri · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
0%

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 627 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 591 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
370 picks · 300 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 752 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 345 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 368 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% AcatSuki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
AcatSuki 59%South Team 41%
The model gave 59% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 34:44.
Game 2prediction missed40:18
AcatSuki 59%South Team 41%
The model gave 59% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by South Team in 42:04.
Game 3prediction missed62:53
AcatSuki 59%South Team 41%
The model gave 59% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by South Team in 1:13:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcatSuki · 59%
Series resultSouth Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3