The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AcatSukiloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AcatSuki
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Michael · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
481 picks · 516 bans
Rubick
449 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 621 bans
Morphling
335 picks · 709 bans
Timbersaw
333 picks · 773 bans
Spirit Breaker
319 picks · 329 bans
Undying
316 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
AcatSuki 24%Thunder Awaken 76%
The model gave 76% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:11.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
AcatSuki 24%Thunder Awaken 76%
The model gave 76% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 76%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2