Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionAFAlex Familyloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CChikarawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alex Family
No games played over 6 months.
Chikara
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 456 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 983 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 925 bans
Undying
396 picks · 596 bans
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Alex Family
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Chikara
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:43
Alex Family 49%Chikara 51%
The model gave 51% on Chikara — the game was taken by Alex Family in 28:50.
Game 2prediction correct62:30
Alex Family 49%Chikara 51%
The model gave 51% on Chikara — the game was taken by Chikara in 35:59.
Game 3prediction correct48:18
Alex Family 49%Chikara 51%
The model gave 51% on Chikara — the game was taken by Chikara in 30:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteChikara · 51%
Series resultChikara 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3