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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALIS VENTORUS

Luna
Luna
paw · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
waveformn · 2 games
0%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 19 games
47%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 587 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 406 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 476 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
423 picks · 202 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 259 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 869 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
ALIS VENTORUS 32%Power Rangers 68%
The model gave 68% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpaw
52% · 85 games44% · 247 games
MuertaTA2000
Muerta
Tiny
TinyPanda
48% · 263 games56% · 160 games
Vipernicky`cool
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterNorma
49% · 214 games51% · 367 games
BatriderAlberkaaa
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
48% · 188 games44% · 53 games
TechiesImmersion
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
53% · 261 game52% · 184 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct15:31
ALIS VENTORUS 30%Power Rangers 70%
The model gave 70% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
44% · 305 games51% · 72 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpaw
51% · 178 games56% · 285 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
43% · 282 games51% · 418 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Techies
Techieswaveformn
34% · 34 games54% · 185 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
51% · 312 games59% · 151 game
RubickImmersion
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 84%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2