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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 12 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Genek · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
22%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Genek · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
791 picks · 560 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 569 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 426 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 736 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
416 picks · 826 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
410 picks · 293 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 856 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 26%
Hero pool strength55% Alliance.LATAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:24
Alliance.LATAM 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 45:44.
Game 2prediction missed43:25
Alliance.LATAM 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 45:21.
Game 3prediction missed37:24
Alliance.LATAM 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 44:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 60%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3