Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DBDudley boyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Dudley boys
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 339 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 114 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 475 bans
Phoenix
212 picks · 299 bans
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 209 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 299 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
197 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:31
Alliance 38%Dudley boys 62%
The model gave 62% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 18:06.
Game 2prediction correct22:53
Alliance 38%Dudley boys 62%
The model gave 62% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 28:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 62%
Series resultDudley boys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2