Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Fata · 2 games
Abaddon
33 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 1 game
Grimstroke
Nine · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
210 picks · 450 bans
Mars
185 picks · 339 bans
Void Spirit
180 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
147 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
144 picks · 235 bans
Nyx Assassin
135 picks · 453 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 76 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:54
Alliance 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:43.
Game 2prediction correct37:28
Alliance 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 50:35.
Game 3prediction correct32:13
Alliance 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3