DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarsloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OG LATAMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
FeelinG · 5 games
Tusk
Accel · 5 games
Dragon Knight
bsK7- · 4 games
OG LATAM
Tusk
Elmisho · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
314 picks · 781 bans
Disruptor
313 picks · 290 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 736 bans
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
264 picks · 248 bans
Marci
260 picks · 758 bans
Snapfire
259 picks · 123 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% OG LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:23
AllStars 34%OG LATAM 66%
The model gave 66% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 14:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritBenjimon
Nature's ProphetCostabile
Marsblessed kid
BristlebackFCR
DisruptorAsao
PudgeAlone
PhoenixFeelinG
BanePanda
52% · 233 games
ClockwerkGenek
Game 2prediction correct8:16
AllStars 36%OG LATAM 64%
The model gave 64% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 14:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalkerblessed kid
HuskarFCR
LeshracBenjimon
Nature's ProphetCostabile
SnapfireAsao
BatriderAlone
ClockwerkFeelinG
EnchantressPanda
55% · 134 games
EarthshakerGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 75%
Series resultOG LATAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2