FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO3
result vs predictionAalohasquadloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
alohasquad
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Tusk
lupsione · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
VP.Prodigy
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 9 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 802 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 359 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 565 bans
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 720 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 569 bans
Mars
341 picks · 470 bans
Slardar
325 picks · 915 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% alohasquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:30
alohasquad 49%VP.Prodigy 51%
The model gave 51% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Clinkzcutie
Tinyспортик
Timbersawtakizawa
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Storm SpiritRain
Shadow DemonALOHADANCE
Skywrath Mageraregods
DisruptorFishman
Ogre MagiJANTER
Game 2prediction correct
alohasquad 48%VP.Prodigy 52%
The model gave 52% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 52%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2