Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Anime Enjoyerswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SS9loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Anime Enjoyers
Marcisignature
sunset · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
Shadow Fiend
Ulnit · 4 games
Earth Spirit
sunset · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
sunset · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ulnit · 2 games
Rubick
sunset · 2 games
S9
Chenoften banned
lilskrip · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Linaoften banned
keintseru · 2 games
Marcioften banned
illusion · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
keintseru · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
628 picks · 495 bans
Marci
470 picks · 684 bans
Dawnbreaker
408 picks · 571 bans
Puck
401 picks · 850 bans
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 482 bans
Zeus
277 picks · 365 bans
Enchantress
267 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Anime Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Anime Enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:14
Anime Enjoyers 53%S9 47%
The model gave 53% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 24:27.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Anime Enjoyers 52%S9 48%
The model gave 52% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeUlnit
Linare1bl
Earth Spiritsunset
Weaverparadise'
47% · 48 games
ViperMieRo
53% · 50 games
Disruptorlilskrip
46% · 53 games
Marciillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteAnime Enjoyers · 53%
Series resultAnime Enjoyers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2