DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ANxJELL ESPORTSloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Silkwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ANxJELL ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Silk
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
DaaD- · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
d1smar · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 386 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 337 bans
Muerta
221 picks · 309 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 101 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% ANxJELL ESPORTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
ANxJELL ESPORTS 47%Silk 53%
The model gave 53% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TuskLuis
SlarkDM
54% · 44 games
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
45% · 16 games
Vengeful SpiritShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 55%
Series resultSilk 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1