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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GRIN esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Bignum · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 748 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 618 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 719 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 1001 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 716 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:6
Apex Genesis 49%GRIN esports 51%
The model gave 51% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSammyboy
67% · 5 games47% · 108 games
Spirit BreakerMoo
Spirit Breaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
57% · 33 games
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
38% · 4 games
Weaver
WeaverSpeeed
50% · 14 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
52% · 52 games
Game 2prediction correct8:37
Apex Genesis 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSammyboy
47% · 32 games51% · 148 games
Dark SeerMoo
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
56% · 37 games
Razor
RazorFayde
50% · 20 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSpeeed
43% · 31 game
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
50% · 28 games
Game 3prediction missed35:35
Apex Genesis 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 1:15:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSammyboy
58% · 88 games51% · 395 games
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
48% · 97 games
Slardar
SlardarFayde
50% · 52 games
Rubick
RubickBignum
43% · 82 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSpeeed
45% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 57%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3