DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 2 games
Pugna
BliNcc · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
nouns
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 14 games
Tinysignature
Lelis · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 643 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
378 picks · 612 bans
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 775 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
343 picks · 399 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
Apex Genesis 26%nouns 74%
The model gave 74% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:50.
Game 2prediction correct10:44
Apex Genesis 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckred2
TerrorbladeYuma
PudgeLowskill
SniperCopy
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Primal BeastGunnar
PugnaBliNcc
RubickLelis
MiranaYamSun
BaneFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 74%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2