Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCREDloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MooN teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
Puckoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
xsvampire · 2 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Zeus
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 1 game
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 454 bans
Puck
423 picks · 907 bans
Mars
369 picks · 582 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 468 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
Dawnbreaker
327 picks · 378 bans
Bane
319 picks · 198 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:31
ARCRED 29%MooN team 71%
The model gave 71% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 46:45.
Game 2prediction correct40:13
ARCRED 29%MooN team 71%
The model gave 71% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 31:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 71%
Series resultMooN team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2