Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlantisloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Grimstroke
Varizh · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
Razoroften banned
db- · 6 games
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 448 bans
Mars
485 picks · 702 bans
Bane
452 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 627 bans
Sand King
387 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:36
Army Geniuses 56%Atlantis 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 51:11.
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Army Geniuses 56%Atlantis 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Atlantis in 32:19.
Game 3prediction correct45:30
Army Geniuses 56%Atlantis 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 49:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 56%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3